You think you’ve had a bad year? Poor Warren Buffett has seen more than $25 billion evaporate from his net worth in the past year, as Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-A) followed the market’s nosedive.
Adding insult to injury, he’s been criticized for the awful performance of investments in Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) and General Electric (NYSE: GE). In addition to preferred shares that pay 10% dividends, he got warrants for common shares at prices that quickly fell off a cliff.
In response to the market panic, Buffett penned an op-ed in The New York Times last fall, saying he was buying U.S. stocks for his personal portfolio. Shortly afterward, stocks continued to disintegrate, and the economy has virtually imploded.
This has caused some to wonder: Has the Oracle of Omaha lost his touch?
You cannot be serious Simon Maierhofer thinks so. In fact, he took issue with Buffett’s claim that stocks will outperform cash in the coming years:
How did [Buffett’s] “cash is trash” philosophy fare over the past 10 years? $10,000 invested in the S&P 500 exactly 10 years ago would be worth $7,500 today. The safest cash equivalent, [Treasury bills] … would have returned about 30%, putting you at $13,000. We don’t encourage investing by looking in the rear view mirror but a look at the numbers shows that the only bull market right now is in cash.
Let’s set aside for a moment the question of inflation, which ensures that the $10,000 of 10 years ago is not, in fact, the equivalent of $10,000 today. What does the market’s performance over the past 10 years suggest for the future?
Up, up, and away Any 10-year retrospective has to contend with the fact that 1998 was smack in the middle of the dot-com boom, when tech companies such as Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) and Yahoo! (Nasdaq: YHOO), and even old stalwarts like Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) and AT&T (NYSE: T), traded like infinite growth was written in stone. Since then, we’ve seen not one, but two bubbles burst. The fact that trailing 10-year returns are pretty bad is hardly enlightening.
But if we look at 10-year returns for the Dow Jones Industrial Average over the past 100 years, a pattern emerges:
10-Year Period
Dow Jones Industrial Average Return
1998-2008
(9%)
1988-1998
331%
1978-1988
165%
1968-1978
(19%)
1958-1968
77%
1948-1958
226%
1938-1948
14%
1928-1938
(49%)
1918-1928
254%
1908-1918
60%
After booms come busts, after busts come booms. That’s how markets work. If we had chosen a different frame (i.e., ending in 2006, instead of 2008), the numbers would likely be different, but the overall pattern would be the same. Markets go up, markets go down. Typically right after one another.
This isn’t a short-term, cherry-picked set of data, after all. It’s 100 years of market returns, during which time the nation overcame two World Wars, four smaller wars, a flu epidemic, the Great Depression, civil uprisings, multiple recessions, oil shocks, and terrorist attacks — not to mention sideburns, Chia Pets, Carrot Top, and boy bands.
Anything can happen in the short term — and the short term right now is chaotic and volatile like never before. Yet over the long term — going back an entire century — the trend of the stock market is pretty clear.
It’s time to be brave Yes, stocks are scary right now. Yes, there will be boom times and bust times — and the busts are no fun, even when we’re resigned to their presence. But if you want your money to earn you adequate post-inflation returns over the long haul, cash isn’t going to get you there. Never has. Never will.
Not only that, but as fear, panic, and forced liquidation rules the market, companies with a history of proven long-term returns now trade near their lowest levels in years. Anyone who thinks holding cash or buying Treasuries at historic highs in lieu of stocks at historic lows is making a mistake they’ll almost certainly regret down the road.
None of this is to say we’ve reached a market bottom. Historical earnings multiples, for example, suggest that more pain could be in store for investors. Some periods of market lethargy have indeed lasted for longer than 10 years, too.
Nonetheless, the trend is as true today as it’s been for the past century: We’re at a point where bargain-hunting investors can be as assured as they’ve been in decades that stocks will perform well in the long term.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

w

Connecting to %s